A Watershed-Level Bioeconomic Analysis of the Value of 6-8 Month Climate Forecasts

20 Pages Posted: 4 Jun 2007 Last revised: 12 May 2013

See all articles by Chau-Sa Ho

Chau-Sa Ho

Ohio State University - Center for Human Resource Research

Diane Hite

Auburn University - Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology

James Novak

Auburn University - Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology

Date Written: June 1, 2007

Abstract

We examine the value of climate forecasts to agricultural producers in a small watershed in southeast Alabama. To carry out the analysis, SWAT is used to divide the Kelly Creek watershed into 77 subwatersheds, according to soil type and topography; then APEX is used to simulate crop yield outcomes for the subwatersheds under a variety of weather scenarios. Finally, an economic profit optimization is developed, from which optimal profits and land uses for given weather are obtained. Values are determined by comparing baseline outcomes to outcomes under various weather outcomes. We find that perfect forecasts would result in per acre values ranging from $9-$183/ac in the study area.

Keywords: Bioeconomics, Climate, SWAT, APEX, Economic Optimization, Environmental Economics, Agricultural Economics

JEL Classification: Q12, R14, Q24

Suggested Citation

Ho, Chau-Sa and Hite, Diane and Novak, James, A Watershed-Level Bioeconomic Analysis of the Value of 6-8 Month Climate Forecasts (June 1, 2007). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=990886 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.990886

Chau-Sa Ho (Contact Author)

Ohio State University - Center for Human Resource Research ( email )

921 Chatham Lane
Columbus, OH 43220
United States
614-442-7379 (Phone)

Diane Hite

Auburn University - Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology ( email )

Comer Hall
Auburn, AL 36849
United States
334-844-5655 (Phone)
334-844-5639 (Fax)

James Novak

Auburn University - Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology ( email )

Comer Hall
Auburn, AL 36849
United States

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