The Dynamic Behaviour of Budget Components and Output

Posted: 4 Jan 2008

See all articles by António Afonso

António Afonso

University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management); UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics); ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa

Peter Claeys

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) - Faculty of Economic, Social and Political Sciences; European University Institute - Economics Department (ECO)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Abstract

The main focus of this paper is the relation between the cyclical components of total revenues and expenditures and the budget balance in France, Germany, Portugal, and Spain. We try to uncover past trends behind the development of public finances that contribute to explaining the current stance of fiscal policy. The disaggregate analysis of fiscal policy in an SVAR that mixes long and short-term constraints allows us to look into the transmission channels of fiscal policy and to derive a model-based indicator of structural balance. The main conclusions are that fiscal slippages are mainly due to reversals in tax policies, which are unmatched by expenditure adjustments. As a consequence, deficits rise when economic conditions worsen but cause a 'ratcheting up' in the size of government in economic booms. The Stability and Growth Pact has not eradicated these procyclical policies. Bad policies in good times also contribute to aggregate macroeconomic instability.

Keywords: fiscal indicator, structural balance, output gap, SGP, EMU, SVAR, short and long-term restrictions

JEL Classification: E62, E65, E66, H61, H62

Suggested Citation

Afonso, António and Claeys, Peter, The Dynamic Behaviour of Budget Components and Output. Economic Modelling, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 93-117, 2008, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=983952

António Afonso (Contact Author)

University of Lisbon - ISEG (School of Economics and Management) ( email )

R. Miguel Lupi, 20
Lisbon, 1248-078
Portugal
+351 21 392 5985 (Phone)
+351 21 396 6407 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/homepage/aafonso

UECE (Research Unit on Complexity and Economics)

Rua Miguel Lupi 20
Lisbon, 1249-078
Portugal
+351-213 925 912 (Phone)
+351-213 971 196 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://uece.rc.iseg.ulisboa.pt/

ISEG Lisbon School of Economics and Management,Universidade de Lisboa ( email )

Rua do Quelhas 6
LISBOA, 1200-781
Portugal

Peter Claeys

Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) - Faculty of Economic, Social and Political Sciences ( email )

Ave. Franklin D Roosevelt, 50 - C.P. 191
B-1050 Brussels
Belgium

European University Institute - Economics Department (ECO) ( email )

Villa San Paolo
Via della Piazzuola 43
50133 Florence
Italy

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
499
PlumX Metrics