Inflation Forecasts, Monetary Policy and Unemployment Dynamics: Evidence from the Us and the Euro Area
39 Pages Posted: 9 Feb 2007
Date Written: February 2007
This paper explores the role that inflation forecasts play in the uncertainty surrounding the estimated effects of alternative monetary rules on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We use the inflation forecasts of 8 competing models in a standard Bayesian VAR to analyse the size and the timing of these effects, as well as to quantify the uncertainty relative to the different inflation models under two rules. The results suggest that model uncertainty can be a serious issue and strengthen the case for a policy strategy that takes into account several sources of information. We find that combining inflation forecasts from many models not only yields more accurate forecasts than those of any specific model, but also reduces the uncertainty associated with the real effects of policy decisions. These results are in line with the model-combination approach that central banks already follow when conceiving their strategy.
Keywords: Inflation Forecasts, Unemployment, Model Uncertainty.
JEL Classification: C53, E24, E37.
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation