Estimating Price Variability in Agriculture: Implications for Decision Makers

Journal of Agriculture and Applied Economics, Vol. 30, No 1, July 1998

Posted: 6 Jun 1998

See all articles by Daryll E. Ray

Daryll E. Ray

University of Tennessee, Knoxville - Agricultural Policy Analysis Center

James W. Richardson

Texas A&M University - Department of Agricultural Economics

Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte

University of Tennessee, Knoxville - Agricultural Policy Analysis Center

Kelly H. Tiller

University of Tennessee

Abstract

Using a stochastic version of the POLYSYS modeling framework, an examination of projected variability in agricultural prices, supply, demand, stocks, and incomes is conducted for corn, wheat, soybeans, and cotton during the 1998-2006 period. Increased planting flexibility introduced in the 1996 farm bill results in projections of significantly higher planted acreage variability compared to recent historical levels. Variability of ending stocks and stock-to-use ratios is projected to be higher for corn and soybeans and lower for wheat and cotton compared to the 1986-96 period. Significantly higher variability is projected for corn prices, with wheat and soybean prices also being more variable. No significant change in cotton price variability is projected.

JEL Classification: Q11, Q12

Suggested Citation

Ray, Daryll Eugene and Richardson, James W. and De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel G. and Tiller, Kelly H., Estimating Price Variability in Agriculture: Implications for Decision Makers. Journal of Agriculture and Applied Economics, Vol. 30, No 1, July 1998, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=94115

Daryll Eugene Ray (Contact Author)

University of Tennessee, Knoxville - Agricultural Policy Analysis Center ( email )

310 Morgan Hall
Knoxville, TN 37901-1071
United States
423-974-7407 (Phone)
423-974-7298 (Fax)

James W. Richardson

Texas A&M University - Department of Agricultural Economics ( email )

College Station, TX 77843-4218
United States
409-845-5913 (Phone)

Daniel G. De La Torre Ugarte

University of Tennessee, Knoxville - Agricultural Policy Analysis Center ( email )

Knoxville, TN 37901-1071
United States
423-974-7407 (Phone)
423-974-7298 (Fax)

Kelly H. Tiller

University of Tennessee ( email )

Knoxville, TN 37901-107
United States

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