How Large Was the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications
38 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006
Date Written: December 1994
The divergence between production and consumption indicators in Russia suggests that the magnitude of the output collapse in the course of the transition is overstated by the official statistics. Alternative estimates for real GDP are derived, which reconcile the official production and consumption data. Based on cautious assumptions, real GDP appears to have declined cumulatively by no more than one third rather than by one half. The drop in household welfare is much smaller still, as the output mix shifts and deadweight losses are sharply reduced.
JEL Classification: E21, E23, E65, P20, P22, P24, P27
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
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By Aleš Bulíř