How Large Was the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications

Gavrilenkov, Evgeny; Koen, Vincent

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How Large Was the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications

IMF Working Paper No. 94/154

38 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2006

See all articles by Evgeny Gavrilenkov

Evgeny Gavrilenkov

National Research University Higher School of Economics

Vincent Koen

Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)

Date Written: December 1994

Abstract

The divergence between production and consumption indicators in Russia suggests that the magnitude of the output collapse in the course of the transition is overstated by the official statistics. Alternative estimates for real GDP are derived, which reconcile the official production and consumption data. Based on cautious assumptions, real GDP appears to have declined cumulatively by no more than one third rather than by one half. The drop in household welfare is much smaller still, as the output mix shifts and deadweight losses are sharply reduced.

JEL Classification: E21, E23, E65, P20, P22, P24, P27

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Gavrilenkov, Evgeny and Koen, Vincent, How Large Was the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications (December 1994). IMF Working Paper No. 94/154, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=883913