Will There Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa by the Year 2020?

37 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2006

See all articles by Jean-Claude Berthelemy

Jean-Claude Berthelemy

Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne - Department of Economics

Ludvig Soderling

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - African Department

Date Written: August 2002

Abstract

This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor real location and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d`Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach Asian tiger levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.

Keywords: Africa, growth, productivity, education, labor reallocation, diversification

JEL Classification: O11, O13, O14, O15, O4, O55, O57, Ql

Suggested Citation

Berthelemy, Jean-Claude and Soderling, Ludvig, Will There Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa by the Year 2020? (August 2002). IMF Working Paper No. 02/131, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=879905

Jean-Claude Berthelemy (Contact Author)

Université Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne - Department of Economics ( email )

12 place du Panthéon
Paris, IL
France

Ludvig Soderling

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - African Department ( email )

1700 19th Street, NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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