Will There Be New Emerging-Market Economies in Africa by the Year 2020?
37 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2006
Date Written: August 2002
This paper examines past African growth experience and attempts to simulate future ones. In addition to more commonly used determinants of total factor productivity, a measure of the effect of labor real location and an index of economic diversification are constructed and included as factors for long-term growth. A simple model is constructed for the purpose of simulating growth scenarios up to the year 2020 for Burkina Faso, Côte d`Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Tanzania, and Uganda. Even if one makes relatively optimistic assumptions, Africa is not likely to reach Asian tiger levels of growth. The results also suggest that growth will depend, to a large extent, on educational investments and productivity gains in agriculture.
Keywords: Africa, growth, productivity, education, labor reallocation, diversification
JEL Classification: O11, O13, O14, O15, O4, O55, O57, Ql
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation