The Cyclical Sensitivity of Seasonality in U.S. Employment

Finance and Economics Discussion Series (95-43)

Posted: 14 Jul 1998

See all articles by Spencer D. Krane

Spencer D. Krane

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Economic Research

William Wascher

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: September 1995

Abstract

This paper investigates seasonality in U.S. payroll employment using a multivariate, unobserved components model. The model allows for interaction between seasonality in industry-level employment and a "common cycle" that captures the comovement in the disaggregated data. The common cycle we estimate exhibits similar business cycle properties, but smaller seasonal variation than aggregate payroll employment. At the industry level, we often find significant differences across seasons in correlations between employment growth and the common cycle. Nonetheless, our industry-level seasonal factors do not differ much from univariate X-11 seasonals in sample; some noticeable differences arise, however, in out-of-sample experiments.

JEL Classification: E2

Suggested Citation

Krane, Spencer D. and Wascher, William, The Cyclical Sensitivity of Seasonality in U.S. Employment (September 1995 ). Finance and Economics Discussion Series (95-43), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=7018

Spencer D. Krane (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago - Economic Research ( email )

230 South LaSalle Street
Chicago, IL 60604-1413
United States
312-322-2382 (Phone)

William Wascher

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States
202-452-2812 (Phone)
202-452-3819 (Fax)

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
527
PlumX Metrics