Pharmaceutical Development Phases: A Duration Analysis

FTC, Bureau of Economics Working Paper No. 274

30 Pages Posted: 25 Oct 2004

Date Written: October 2004

Abstract

This paper estimates a duration model of late stage drug development in the pharmaceutical industry using publicly available data. The paper presents descriptive results on the estimated relationship between a particular drug's characteristics such as therapy category, route of administration and originator's size, and that drug's pathway through the three stages of human clinical trials and regulatory review. The results suggest that drugs with longer durations are less likely to succeed, drugs from larger firms are more likely to succeed and faster in the later phases of development, and that durations fell between 1995 and 2002.

Keywords: Pharmceuticals, research and development, duration analysis

JEL Classification: I11, L65, 031

Suggested Citation

Abrantes-Metz, Rosa M. and Adams, Christopher and Metz, Albert, Pharmaceutical Development Phases: A Duration Analysis (October 2004). FTC, Bureau of Economics Working Paper No. 274, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=607941 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.607941

Rosa M. Abrantes-Metz (Contact Author)

The Brattle Group ( email )

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16462768698 (Phone)

Christopher Adams

CBO ( email )

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Washington, DC 20515-6925
United States

Albert Metz

The Brattle Group ( email )

44 Brattle Street
3rd Floor
Cambridge, MA 02138-3736
United States

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