Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy

64 Pages Posted: 1 Dec 2004

See all articles by Carsten Detken

Carsten Detken

European Central Bank (ECB)

Frank Smets

European Central Bank (ECB); KU Leuven - Center for Economic Studies

Date Written: May 2004

Abstract

The paper aims at deriving some stylised facts for financial, real, and monetary policy developments during asset price booms. We observe various macroeconomic variables in a pre-boom, boom and post-boom phase. Not all booms lead to large output losses. We analyse the differences between highcost and low-cost booms. High-cost booms are clearly those in which real estate prices and investment crash in the post-boom periods. In general it is difficult to distinguish a high-cost from a low-cost boom at an early stage. However, high-cost booms seem to follow very rapid growth in the real money and real credit stocks just before the boom and at the early stages of a boom. There is also evidence that high-cost booms are associated with significantly looser monetary policy conditions over the boom period, especially towards the late stage of a boom. We finally discuss the results with regard to the theoretical literature.

Keywords: asset price booms, asset price bubbles, optimal monetary policy, over-investment, real estate prices

JEL Classification: E44, E52, E58

Suggested Citation

Detken, Carsten and Smets, Frank, Asset Price Booms and Monetary Policy (May 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=533122

Carsten Detken (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany
0049 69 13440 (Phone)
0049 69 1344 6000 (Fax)

Frank Smets

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
+49 69 1344 6550 (Phone)
+49 69 1344 6575 (Fax)

KU Leuven - Center for Economic Studies ( email )

Naamsestraat 69
Leuven, B-3000
Belgium

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