Popularity Functions, Partisan Effects, and Support in Parliament

Abstract

This paper analyzes the popularity of the main political entities in Portugal. Estimation results of popularity functions validate the responsibility hypothesis, with unemployment, and to a lesser extent inflation, affecting popularity levels. There is also evidence of personality effects, of popularity erosion over consecutive terms and of honeymoon effects. Finally, we found that voters' evaluations of incumbents' performance regarding unemployment is affected by their support in Parliament - when an incumbent faces more opposition in Parliament, voters are less likely to hold him responsible for unemployment increases.

Keywords: Popularity functions, partisan effects, parliamentary support, Portugal

JEL Classification: H80, E31, E60