Optimal Disease Eradication
46 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2004
Date Written: March 2004
Using a dynamic model of the control of an infectious disease, we derive the conditions under which eradication will be optimal. When eradication is feasible, the optimal program requires either a low vaccination rate or eradication. A high vaccination rate is never optimal. Under special conditions, the results are especially stark: the optimal policy is either not to vaccinate at all or to eradicate. Our analysis yields a cost-benefit rule for eradication, which we apply to the current initiative to eradicate polio.
Keywords: Eradication of infectious diseases, Vaccination, Control theory, Cost-benefit analysis, Poliomyelitis
JEL Classification: D61, H41, I18
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation