Optimal Disease Eradication

46 Pages Posted: 29 Apr 2004

See all articles by Scott Barrett

Scott Barrett

Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS)

Michael Hoel

University of Oslo; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Date Written: March 2004

Abstract

Using a dynamic model of the control of an infectious disease, we derive the conditions under which eradication will be optimal. When eradication is feasible, the optimal program requires either a low vaccination rate or eradication. A high vaccination rate is never optimal. Under special conditions, the results are especially stark: the optimal policy is either not to vaccinate at all or to eradicate. Our analysis yields a cost-benefit rule for eradication, which we apply to the current initiative to eradicate polio.

Keywords: Eradication of infectious diseases, Vaccination, Control theory, Cost-benefit analysis, Poliomyelitis

JEL Classification: D61, H41, I18

Suggested Citation

Barrett, Scott and Hoel, Michael, Optimal Disease Eradication (March 2004). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=525402 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.525402

Scott Barrett

Johns Hopkins University - Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) ( email )

1740 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
United States
202-663-5761 (Phone)
202-663-5769 (Fax)

Michael Hoel (Contact Author)

University of Oslo ( email )

P.O. Box 1095 Blindern
N-0317 Oslo
Norway
+ 47 22 85 83 87 (Phone)
+ 47 22 85 50 35 (Fax)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute for Economic Research)

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.CESifo.de

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
177
Abstract Views
1,596
rank
205,776
PlumX Metrics