Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?

Cerra, Valerie; Saxena, Sweta C.

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Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis?

IMF Working Paper No. 03/48

26 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2004

See all articles by Valerie Cerra

Sweta C. Saxena

Bank for International Settlements (BIS) - Monetary and Economic Department

Date Written: March 2003

Abstract

This paper investigates the extent to which output has recovered from the Asian crisis. A regime-switching approach that introduces two state variables is used to decompose recessions in a set of six Asian countries into permanent and transitory components. While growth recovered fairly quickly after the crisis, there is evidence of permanent losses in the levels of output in all of the countries studied.

Keywords: Asia, crisis, business cycles, recovery, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore

JEL Classification: F39, F41, F42, F49, C32, G15

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Cerra, Valerie and Saxena, Sweta Chaman, Did Output Recover from the Asian Crisis? (March 2003). IMF Working Paper No. 03/48, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=500623