A General Multivariate Threshold GARCH Model for Dynamic Correlations

NCCR FINRISK Working Paper

41 Pages Posted: 21 Jan 2004

See all articles by Francesco Audrino

Francesco Audrino

University of St. Gallen

Fabio Trojani

Swiss Finance Institute; University of Geneva

Date Written: December 2004

Abstract

We propose a new multivariate DCC-GARCH model that extends existing approaches by admitting multivariate thresholds in conditional volatilities and conditional correlations. Model estimation is numerically feasible in large dimensions and positive semi-definiteness of conditional covariance matrices is naturally ensured by the pure model structure. Conditional thresholds in volatilities and correlations are estimated from the data, together with all other model parameters. We study the performance of our approach in some Monte Carlo simulations, where it is shown that the model is able to fit correctly a GARCH-type dynamics and a complex threshold structure in conditional volatilities and correlations of simulated data. In a real data application to international equity markets, we observe estimated conditional volatilities that are strongly influenced by GARCH-type and multivariate threshold effects. Conditional correlations, instead, are determined by simple threshold structures where no GARCH-type effect could be identified.

Keywords: Multivariate GARCH models, Dynamic conditional correlations, Tree-structured GARCH models, Model confidence set approach

JEL Classification: C12, C13, C51, C53, C61

Suggested Citation

Audrino, Francesco and Trojani, Fabio, A General Multivariate Threshold GARCH Model for Dynamic Correlations (December 2004). NCCR FINRISK Working Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=487942 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.487942

Francesco Audrino (Contact Author)

University of St. Gallen ( email )

Bodanstrasse 6
St. Gallen, CH-9000
Switzerland

Fabio Trojani

Swiss Finance Institute ( email )

c/o University of Geneva
40, Bd du Pont-d'Arve
CH-1211 Geneva 4
Switzerland

University of Geneva ( email )

Geneva, Geneva
Switzerland

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