The Likelihood of European Monetary Union

Posted: 12 Sep 1996

Date Written: Undated


Using information contained in forward interest rates, this paper attempts to assess the probability that European Monetary Union (EMU) occurs and that a particular country participates. It is shown that since the Madrid summit, the public has become increasingly optimistic about the realization of EMU. Furthermore, Germany, the Netherlands, France and Belgium are found to be the most likely candidates for the single currency project.

JEL Classification: F33

Suggested Citation

Weidmann, Jens, The Likelihood of European Monetary Union (Undated). Available at SSRN:

Jens Weidmann (Contact Author)

Federal Statistical Office ( email )

Gustav - Stresemann - Ring 11
Wiesbaden, 65189

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