Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

37 Pages Posted: 26 Jul 2021 Last revised: 2 Aug 2021

See all articles by Gordon B. Dahl

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Runjing Lu

University of Alberta

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: July 2021

Abstract

Changes in political leadership drive large changes in economic optimism. We exploit the surprise 2016 election of Trump to identify the effects of a shift in political power on one of the most consequential household decisions: whether to have a child. Republican-leaning counties experience a sharp and persistent increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 1.1 to 2.6 percentage point difference in annual births, depending on the intensity of partisanship. Hispanics, a group targeted by Trump, see fertility fall relative to non-Hispanics, especially compared to rural or evangelical whites. Further, following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines.

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Suggested Citation

Dahl, Gordon B. and Lu, Runjing and Mullins, William, Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (July 2021). NBER Working Paper No. w29058, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3893339

Gordon B. Dahl (Contact Author)

UC San Diego - Department of Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Runjing Lu

University of Alberta

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

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