Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
35 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2021 Last revised: 25 Apr 2021
Date Written: April 5, 2021
This paper documents a new consequence of elections and a new determinant of fertility. A marked partisan change in economic optimism followed the unexpected election of Trump in 2016. We find large downstream fertility effects, with Republican-leaning counties experiencing a sharp increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 0.6 to 1.4% increase in annual births depending on the intensity of partisanship. Hispanics, a group targeted by the Trump campaign, see a relative fertility decline of 1.6 percentage points compared to non-Hispanics. Bolstering the notion that political sentiment is driving these fertility changes, we find that following a Trump pre-election campaign visit, relative Hispanic fertility declines.
Keywords: Fertility, Partisanship
JEL Classification: J13, D72
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation