Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections

35 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2021 Last revised: 25 Apr 2021

See all articles by Gordon B. Dahl

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); University of Rochester - Department of Economics

Runjing Lu

University of Alberta - Department of Finance

William Mullins

University of California, San Diego (UCSD)

Date Written: April 5, 2021

Abstract

This paper documents a new consequence of elections and a new determinant of fertility. A marked partisan change in economic optimism followed the unexpected election of Trump in 2016. We find large downstream fertility effects, with Republican-leaning counties experiencing a sharp increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties: a 0.6 to 1.4% increase in annual births depending on the intensity of partisanship. Hispanics, a group targeted by the Trump campaign, see a relative fertility decline of 1.6 percentage points compared to non-Hispanics. Bolstering the notion that political sentiment is driving these fertility changes, we find that following a Trump pre-election campaign visit, relative Hispanic fertility declines.

Keywords: Fertility, Partisanship

JEL Classification: J13, D72

Suggested Citation

Dahl, Gordon B. and Lu, Runjing and Mullins, William, Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (April 5, 2021). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3822013 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3822013

Gordon B. Dahl

UC San Diego - Department of Economics ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
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University of Rochester - Department of Economics

Harkness Hall
Rochester, NY 14627
United States

Runjing Lu

University of Alberta - Department of Finance ( email )

Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2R3
Canada

William Mullins (Contact Author)

University of California, San Diego (UCSD) ( email )

9500 Gilman Drive
Mail Code 0502
La Jolla, CA 92093-0112
United States

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