Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections
37 Pages Posted: 24 Apr 2021 Last revised: 15 Jun 2021
Date Written: April 5, 2021
This paper documents a new consequence of elections and a new determinant of fertility. A marked partisan change in economic optimism followed the unexpected election of Trump in 2016. We find large downstream fertility effects, with Republican-leaning counties experiencing a sharp increase in the fertility gap relative to Democratic counties: a 0.7 to 1.4% increase in annual births depending on the intensity of partisanship. Hispanics, a group targeted by Trump, see fertility declines relative to non-Hispanics, especially relative to rural or evangelical whites. We also find that following Trump pre-election campaign visits, relative Hispanic fertility declines.
Keywords: Fertility, Partisanship
JEL Classification: J13, D72
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation