Impact of COVID-19 Induced Lockdown on Wheat Prices: Empirical Evidence from Interrupted Time Series Analysis

16 Pages Posted: 28 Dec 2020

See all articles by A G Adeeth Cariappa

A G Adeeth Cariappa

ICAR - National Dairy Research Institute

Kamlesh Kumar Acharya

National Dairy Research Institute - Department of Dairy Economics, Statistics & Management

Chaitanya Adhav

ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute - Department of Dairy Economics, Statistics and Management

Sendhil R

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research

P. Ramasundaram

Indian Council of Agricultural Research

Date Written: December 26, 2020

Abstract

COVID-19 incidence disrupted the food markets in India. The present study, adopting the interrupted time series analysis (ITSA), captures the impact of pandemic induced lockdown on wholesale and retail wheat prices. Prices increased post-lockdown, however, there was no evidence of structural break as well as persisting volatility implying that the lockdown had no lasting impact on wheat prices. Retail prices witnessed an immediate increase post-lockdown across the country but significant only in west and north-east zones, and showed a decline in north and east zone. On the contrary, wholesale prices witnessed an immediate and significant increase in west and north-east zones; with a significant decrease in south zone. A negative post intervention trend in ITSA confirmed the result as a majority of the market zones reverted back to pre-lockdown levels which shall be attributed to the wheat arrivals post bumper harvest. Despite the relaxation allowed for agricultural related activities during the lockdown, price change in wheat has been observed across regions but reverted back owing to the system resilience. The ļ¬ndings affirm that market disruption is the main driver behind the observed price changes and government interventions like staggered procurement and logistics support resulted in wheat sector restoration

Keywords: COVID-19, retail price, wholesale price, market disruption, interrupted time series

JEL Classification: D12, E31, Q11, Q18, Q13, L51

Suggested Citation

Cariappa, A G Adeeth and Acharya, Kamlesh Kumar and Adhav, Chaitanya and R, Sendhil and Ramasundaram, P., Impact of COVID-19 Induced Lockdown on Wheat Prices: Empirical Evidence from Interrupted Time Series Analysis (December 26, 2020). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3755377 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3755377

A G Adeeth Cariappa (Contact Author)

ICAR - National Dairy Research Institute ( email )

Karnal, Haryana 132001
India
+919741000909 (Phone)

Kamlesh Kumar Acharya

National Dairy Research Institute - Department of Dairy Economics, Statistics & Management ( email )

Karnal (Haryana) 132 001
India
9437204130 (Phone)

Chaitanya Adhav

ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute - Department of Dairy Economics, Statistics and Management ( email )

Karnal (Haryana) 132 001
India

Sendhil R

ICAR-Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research ( email )

PO Box 158, Agarsain Marg
Karnal, 132001
India
132001 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://iiwbr.icar.gov.in/team_member/dr-r-sendhil/

P. Ramasundaram

Indian Council of Agricultural Research ( email )

Krishi Anusandhan Bhavan II
Pusa
New Delhi 110012, Delhi 110012
India
9716134485 (Phone)
110012 (Fax)

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