75 Pages Posted: 10 Feb 2021 Last revised: 10 Aug 2021
Date Written: December 5, 2020
The slope carry consists of taking a long (short) position in the long-term bonds of countries with steeper (flatter) yield curves. The traditional carry is a long (short) position in countries with high (low) short-term rates. We document that: (i) the slope carry risk premium is slightly negative (strongly positive) in the pre (post) 2008 period, whereas it is concealed over longer samples; (ii) the traditional carry risk premium is lower post-2008; and (iii) there has been a sharp decline in expected global growth and global inflation post-2008. We connect these empirical findings through an equilibrium model in which investors price news shocks, financial markets are complete, and countries feature heterogeneous exposure to news shocks about both global output expected growth and global inflation.
Keywords: Currency Risk, Carry Trade, Inflation Risk
JEL Classification: F31, G12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation