Brexit: Situation and Economic Consequences

12 Pages Posted: 17 Dec 2020

See all articles by Coral García

Coral García

Banco de España

Iván Kataryniuk

Banco de España

César Martín Machuca

Banco de España

Moritz A. Roth

Deutsche Bundesbank

Alejandro Buesa

Banco de España; Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) - Department of Fundamentals of Economic Analysis II (Quantitative Economics)

Susana Moreno

Banco de España

Date Written: December 4, 2020

Abstract

The effective departure of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) opens up a new period of relations between the two areas. The current health crisis limits economic policies’ room for manoeuvre to accommodate the costs of transitioning to a new economic relationship, whatever final form it may take. This article describes the most recent developments in the negotiation process and outlines three possible scenarios for the future EU-UK trading relationship, providing simulations of the potential macroeconomic impact in each case. Moreover, the recent trend in trading and financial relations between the United Kingdom and Spain is set out in a box.

Keywords: Brexit, NiGEM, scenario analysis, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, migration, FDI

JEL Classification: F15, F47, F53

Suggested Citation

García, Coral and Kataryniuk, Iván and Machuca, César Martín and Roth, Moritz A. and Buesa, Alejandro and Moreno, Susana, Brexit: Situation and Economic Consequences (December 4, 2020). Banco de Espana Article 40/20, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3742717

Coral García (Contact Author)

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala, 48
Madrid, Madrid 28014
Spain
+34 91 338 50 00 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.bde.es/

Iván Kataryniuk

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

César Martín Machuca

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

Moritz A. Roth

Deutsche Bundesbank ( email )

Wilhelm-Epstein-Strasse 14
60431 Frankfurt am Main
Germany

Universidad Complutense de Madrid (UCM) - Department of Fundamentals of Economic Analysis II (Quantitative Economics) ( email )

Campus of Somosaguas
Madrid
Spain

Susana Moreno

Banco de España ( email )

Alcala 50
Madrid 28014
Spain

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