The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Commonwealth Trade, Recovery and Resilience

Trade Hot Topics, Issue 161. The Commonwealth Secretariat (2020)

11 Pages Posted: 9 Nov 2020

See all articles by Hubert Escaith

Hubert Escaith

Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics); Bournemouth University

Sangeeta Khorana

Bournemouth University

James N. MacGregor

Ramboll Consulting

Brendan Vickers

Government of the United Kingdom - Commonwealth Secretariat

Salamat Ali

University of Nottingham - School of Economics

Date Written: November 6, 2020

Abstract

The paper adopts a Global Value Chain (GVC) perspective to estimate the intensity of impact of COVID-19 across sectors for all Commonwealth countries. The intensity of the impact was driven by a combination of supply and demand shocks transmitted across different sectors of the economy. Some countries are much more affected than others. The varying impact of the pandemic in some countries suggests that the differences observed between countries have structural causes. The first is the sectoral composition of domestic activity; the second is the exposure to trade in general and GVCs trade in particular. In a second part, the paper delineates the path to sustainable recovery along three stages, some of which have already been set in motion around the world in response to the pandemic.

Keywords: COVID-19, Commonweath countries, trade

JEL Classification: E17, F01, F17

Suggested Citation

Escaith, Hubert and Khorana, Sangeeta and MacGregor, James N. and Vickers, Brendan and Ali, Salamat, The Potential Impact of COVID-19 on Commonwealth Trade, Recovery and Resilience (November 6, 2020). Trade Hot Topics, Issue 161. The Commonwealth Secretariat (2020), Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3726149

Hubert Escaith (Contact Author)

Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics) ( email )

Chateau La Farge
Route des Milles
F-13290 Les Milles, Provence
France
+33(0)4 42914834 (Phone)
+33(0)4 42389585 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://https://www.amse-aixmarseille.fr/fr/membres/escaith

Bournemouth University ( email )

Fern Barrow
Poole BH12 5BB, Dorset BH8 8EB
United Kingdom

Sangeeta Khorana

Bournemouth University ( email )

The Business School
Bournemouth University, Dorset BH8 8ER
United Kingdom

James N. MacGregor

Ramboll Consulting ( email )

Denmark

Brendan Vickers

Government of the United Kingdom - Commonwealth Secretariat ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Salamat Ali

University of Nottingham - School of Economics ( email )

University Park
Nottingham, NG7 2RD
United Kingdom

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