Macroeconomic Forecast Accuracy in Data-Rich Environment
Journal of Applied Econometrics // https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2725
50 Pages Posted: 6 Jan 2021
Date Written: February 2, 2018
The performance of six classes of models in forecasting different types of economic series is evaluated in an extensive pseudo out‐of‐sample exercise. One of these forecasting models, regularized data‐rich model averaging (RDRMA), is new in the literature. The findings can be summarized in four points. First, RDRMA is difficult to beat in general and generates the best forecasts for real variables. This performance is attributed to the combination of regularization and model averaging, and it confirms that a smart handling of large data sets can lead to substantial improvements over univariate approaches. Second, the ARMA(1,1) model emerges as the best to forecast inflation changes in the short run, while RDRMA dominates at longer horizons. Third, the returns on the S&P 500 index are predictable by RDRMA at short horizons. Finally, the forecast accuracy and the optimal structure of the forecasting equations are quite unstable over time.
Keywords: Data-Rich Models, Factor Models, Forecasting, Model Averaging, Sparse Models, Regularization
JEL Classification: C55, C32, E17
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation