The Bond, Equity, and Real Estate Term Structures

67 Pages Posted: 8 Oct 2020 Last revised: 13 Oct 2020

See all articles by Spencer Andrews

Spencer Andrews

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Finance Area

Andrei Gonçalves

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Finance Area

Date Written: October 6, 2020

Abstract

We construct a Stochastic Discount Factor (SDF) that prices bond, equity, and real estate portfolios sorted on cash flow duration. Using this SDF and the dynamics of cash flow yields in these three asset classes, we estimate the bond, equity, and real estate term structures monthly from 1974 to 2019. We find that while (nominally) safe and risky cash flows have risk premia term structures that are upward sloping on average and move together over time, the term structure dynamics are fundamentally different after we remove the safe component of the risky cash flows. Specifically, equity and real estate maturity-matched risk premia, on average, increase over short maturities but decline over long maturities. Moreover, their term structures comove positively with each other but negatively with the bond term structure.

Keywords: Cash Flow Duration, Risk Premia Term Structure, Bond Term Structure, Equity Term Structure, Real Estate Term Structure

JEL Classification: C58, E32, E43, E44, G11, G12

Suggested Citation

Andrews, Spencer and Gonçalves, Andrei, The Bond, Equity, and Real Estate Term Structures (October 6, 2020). Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Research Paper Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3706414 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3706414

Spencer Andrews

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Finance Area ( email )

Kenan-Flagler Business School
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3490
United States
3026502645 (Phone)

Andrei Gonçalves (Contact Author)

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Finance Area ( email )

Kenan-Flagler Business School
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3490
United States

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