The Role of Unemployment and Job Change When Estimating the Returns to Migration

70 Pages Posted: 5 Oct 2020

See all articles by Julian Emmler

Julian Emmler

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Bernd Fitzenberger

Humboldt University of Berlin - School of Business and Economics

Abstract

Estimating the returns to migration from East to West Germany, we focus on pre-migration employment dynamics, earnings uncertainty, and job change. Migrants are found to be negatively selected with respect to labor market outcomes, with a large drop in earnings and employment during the last few months before migration. We find sizeable positive earnings and employment gains of migration both in comparison to staying or job change. The gains vary considerably with pre-migration earnings and with the counterfactual considered. Future migrants have worse expectations for their labor market prospects in the East and migrants show a greater openness to mobility.

Keywords: migration, returns, selection, unemployment, moving costs

JEL Classification: J61, R23, O15, P25

Suggested Citation

Emmler, Julian and Fitzenberger, Bernd, The Role of Unemployment and Job Change When Estimating the Returns to Migration. IZA Discussion Paper No. 13740, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3704121

Julian Emmler (Contact Author)

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Bernd Fitzenberger

Humboldt University of Berlin - School of Business and Economics ( email )

Spandauer Str. 1
Berlin, D-10099
Germany

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