Goods Exports and Soft Export Indicators: Is a Disconnect Under Way?
20 Pages Posted: 28 May 2020
Date Written: March 18, 2020
We find evidence of a gradual weakening of the correlation between the new export orders component of the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and real goods export dynamics in the four major euro-area countries since 2012. In Italy this disconnect has been particularly strong over the last few quarters and concerns other soft export indicators as well. The decline in the information content of firms’ survey responses has gone hand in hand with several economic factors common to all four countries, such as a significant rise in economic uncertainty and the growing role of infra-group transactions within multinational enterprises.
Keywords: national accounts, goods exports, soft indicators
JEL Classification: F00, F19
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation