International Financial Crisis: Expectation Transmission and Policy Synchronisation
Monetary Policy Committee Discussion Papers of the People's Bank of China, 2020
36 Pages Posted: 28 Apr 2020
Date Written: April 2, 2020
In recent years, the economic and financial linkages of major economies have become intertwined, and the cross-market contagion effect of the global financial crisis has become more apparent. This paper mainly studies the expectation transmission and policy synchronization in international financial crisis, netting out influence of fundamental-based factors. Contributions of this paper are two folds. First, we innovatively calculate and utilize expectation gap and policy gap. We apply Taylor Rule regression to different expectation and monetary policy stance variables, and uses respective residuals as expectation gap and policy gap. We measure expectation transmission and policy synchronization by correlation of expectation gap/policy gap between originating economy and affected economies. Second, we innovatively propose financial accelerator in open economy and Taylor Rule augmented by international factors as respective theoretical basis of expectation transmission and policy synchronization. Our empirical study covers four international financial crises and 24 economies, and finds that expectation transmission and policy synchronization are generally significant in the four crises. Transmission efficiency varies because of financial openness, financial stability and regional integration. Economic weight of the originating economy also exerts influences. These results convincingly support the theoretical analysis in this paper. Based on above results, this paper proposes relevant policy recommendations, such as to strengthen expectation management,to strike balance between domestic and international equilibrium, and to strengthen international macroeconomic-policy coordination.
Keywords: International Financial Crisis Shock; Expectation Transmission; Policy Synchronisation; Taylor Rule; Financial Accelerator
JEL Classification: E52; F42; F65
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation