An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data

51 Pages Posted: 18 Feb 2020 Last revised: 3 Feb 2021

See all articles by Robert J. Hodrick

Robert J. Hodrick

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Date Written: February 2020

Abstract

This paper uses simulations to explore the properties of the HP filter of Hodrick and Prescott (1997), the BK filter of Baxter and King (1999), and the H filter of Hamilton (2018) that are designed to decompose a univariate time series into trend and cyclical components. Each simulated time series approximates the natural logarithms of U.S. Real GDP, and they are a random walk, an ARIMA model, two unobserved components models, and models with slowly changing nonstationary stochastic trends and definitive cyclical components. In basic time series, the H filter dominates the HP and BK filters in more closely characterizing the underlying framework, but in more complex models, the reverse is true.

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Suggested Citation

Hodrick, Robert J., An Exploration of Trend-Cycle Decomposition Methodologies in Simulated Data (February 2020). NBER Working Paper No. w26750, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3539317

Robert J. Hodrick (Contact Author)

Columbia Business School - Finance and Economics ( email )

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