Analysing Tax-Benefit Reforms in the Netherlands: Using Structural Models and Natural Experiments

63 Pages Posted: 28 Jan 2020

See all articles by Henk-Wim de Boer

Henk-Wim de Boer

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis

Egbert Jongen

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis

Abstract

We combine the strengths of structural models and natural experiments in the analysis of tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands. First we estimate structural discrete-choice models for labour supply. Next we simulate key past reforms and compare the predictions of the structural model with the outcomes of quasi-experimental studies. The structural model predicts the treatment effects well. The structural model then allows us to conduct counterfactual policy analysis. Policies targeted at working mothers with young children generate the largest labour supply responses, but generate little additional government revenue. Introducing a at tax, basic income or joint taxation is not effective.

Keywords: tax-benefit reform, natural experiments, structural models, Netherlands

JEL Classification: C25, C52, H31, J22

Suggested Citation

de Boer, Henk-Wim and Jongen, Egbert, Analysing Tax-Benefit Reforms in the Netherlands: Using Structural Models and Natural Experiments. IZA Discussion Paper No. 12892, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3525219

Henk-Wim De Boer (Contact Author)

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis ( email )

P.O. Box 80510
2508 GM The Hague, 2585 JR
Netherlands

Egbert Jongen

CPB Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis ( email )

P.O. Box 80510
2508 GM The Hague, 2585 JR
Netherlands

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