The Rise of the 'No Party' in England

46 Pages Posted: 14 Oct 2019

See all articles by Toke Skovsgaard Aidt

Toke Skovsgaard Aidt

University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics and Politics

Christopher Rauh

University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics

Date Written: 2019

Abstract

We document a remarkable increase over the past two and a half decades in the fraction of people in England feeling close to no party – the rise of the “no party” – which, today, is close to constituting an absolute majority. We develop a new method to distinguish between age, period, and cohort effects based on individual longitudinal survey data and we show that the rise of the “no party” is driven much more by a secular trend (period effects) than by generation replacement (cohort effects). We show that the increase in “no party” supporters and in their turnout behavior can explain 80% of the observed decline in election turnout in England over the period. A detailed investigation of the dynamics of party identification shows that party political disengagement has become more persistent over time.

Keywords: age-period-cohort effects, party identification, democracy, England, Secular Disengagement Hypothesis

JEL Classification: D720

Suggested Citation

Aidt, Toke Skovsgaard and Rauh, Christopher, The Rise of the 'No Party' in England (2019). CESifo Working Paper No. 7812, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3467945

Toke Skovsgaard Aidt (Contact Author)

University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics and Politics ( email )

Austin Robinson Building
Sidgwick Avenue
Cambridge, CB3 9DD
United Kingdom
+44 1223 33 5231 (Phone)
+44 1223 33 5475 (Fax)

Christopher Rauh

University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Sidgwick Avenue
Cambridge, CB3 9DD
United Kingdom

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