Australian Housing Market Booms: Fundamentals or Speculation?
26 Pages Posted: 4 Sep 2019
Date Written: July 26, 2019
This paper investigates the presence of housing bubbles in Australia at the national, capital city, and local government area (LGA) levels. We control for housing market demand and supply fundamentals using the technique of Shi (2017), and employ the recursive evolving method proposed by Phillips et al. (2015a,b) for the detection of explosive bubbles. While the national-level analysis suggests a short-lived bubble episode (2017:Q3) over the entire sample period from 1999 to 2017, the results from the capital-city-level data reveal substantial heterogeneity across cities, with only short-lived and isolated bubbles identified for Sydney and Melbourne during the recent rapid housing price expansions from 2013 to 2017. The LGA-level analysis suggests that the bubbles in Sydney and Melbourne have low intensity.
Keywords: housing price, speculation, economic fundamental, decomposition, vector autoregressive model, PSY procedure
JEL Classification: R31, R39, C22
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation