Biases in Fiscal Multiplier Estimates

50 Pages Posted: 17 Jul 2019

See all articles by Zareh Asatryan

Zareh Asatryan

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Annika Havlik

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research; University of Mannheim

Friedrich Heinemann

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research; University of Heidelberg - Alfred Weber Institute for Economics

Justus Nover

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

Date Written: 2019

Abstract

The "true" size of fiscal multipliers is widely debated by economists and policy makers as large (small) multipliers provide arguments to expand (cut) public spending. Within a meta-analytical framework, we ask whether the large observed variance in multiplier estimates can be explained by the national imprint and various author incentives. For this purpose, we use data on economists' personal characteristics including results from a selfconducted author survey. Our evidence is consistent with the hypotheses that the national background of researchers and the interests of donors financing the research matter for the degree and direction of multiplier estimates.

These potential biases largely disappear for teams of international co-authors.

Keywords: biased research, fiscal multipliers, funding bias, publication bias

JEL Classification: B4, D72, E62, H11

Suggested Citation

Asatryan, Zareh and Havlik, Annika and Heinemann, Friedrich and Nover, Justus, Biases in Fiscal Multiplier Estimates (2019). ZEW - Centre for European Economic Research Discussion Paper No. NO. 19 - 025, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3420838 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3420838

Zareh Asatryan (Contact Author)

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1
D-68034 Mannheim, 68034
Germany

Annika Havlik

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1
D-68034 Mannheim, 68034
Germany

University of Mannheim ( email )

Mannheim, 68131
Germany

Friedrich Heinemann

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1
D-68034 Mannheim, 68034
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.zew.de

University of Heidelberg - Alfred Weber Institute for Economics ( email )

Grabengasse 14
Heidelberg, D-69117
Germany

Justus Nover

ZEW – Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1
D-68034 Mannheim, 68034
Germany

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