Time-Varying Effectiveness of Competitive Advertising

38 Pages Posted: 11 Jan 2019 Last revised: 12 Apr 2019

See all articles by Andre Bonfrer

Andre Bonfrer

Deakin University; Australian National University (ANU)

Michael Braun

Southern Methodist University (SMU) - Marketing Department

Peter Danaher

Monash University

Date Written: December 27, 2018


Several recent studies report a seemingly counterintuitive result of positive cross advertising effects. We examine this phenomenon, and document its prevalence and persistence using time series data for several mature packaged goods categories. For this purpose we develop a hierarchical dynamic model to capture time-varying market response to both advertising and pricing. The model is estimated using a novel matrix specification of a hierarchical dynamic model, which parsimoniously handles multivariate demand specifications with multiple marketing mix variables, dynamically accounting for both endogeneity and heterogeneity. We use our model to study the time-varying nature of cross effects of advertising, and find that positive cross effects persist over time in many categories. We additionally examine how brand growth or decline occurs due to own and competing brands' effects. Share of voice, novelty, and variety in the media mix are positively associated with these cross effects. We find no evidence that cross effects are associated with competitive intensity. This study advances understanding of those situations in which increased advertising is likely to be effective at driving sales. It also can help managers with temporal allocation of brand-building advertising budgets, with the objective of increasing brand sales volume and market share in a competitive advertising environment.

Suggested Citation

Bonfrer, Andre and Braun, Michael and Danaher, Peter, Time-Varying Effectiveness of Competitive Advertising (December 27, 2018). SMU Cox School of Business Research Paper No. 19-5, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3307203 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3307203

Andre Bonfrer (Contact Author)

Deakin University ( email )


Australian National University (ANU) ( email )

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601

Michael Braun

Southern Methodist University (SMU) - Marketing Department ( email )

United States

Peter Danaher

Monash University ( email )

23 Innovation Walk
Wellington Road
Clayton, Victoria 3800

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