Leaving the Safety Net: An Analysis of Dropouts in an Urban Conditional Cash Transfer Program

Posted: 8 Jan 2019

See all articles by Paul Winters

Paul Winters

International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD)

Maria Heracleous

University of Cyprus - Department of Economics

Date Written: December 2012

Abstract

In poverty reduction programs, a significant number of beneficiaries change program status. An analysis of Oportunidades’ data from urban Mexico shows that beneficiaries that drop out for behavioral and administrative reasons are those who are marginally eligible, improving targeting through minimizing errors of inclusion. Results also indicate that the very poorest recipients, particularly in large urban areas and less marginal communities, are more likely to drop out, increasing the errors of omission. Households deemed ineligible through a recertification process were those that had obtained basic durables or changed their demographic composition implying that Oportunidades’ retargeting is based on limited information.

Suggested Citation

Winters, Paul and Heracleous, Maria, Leaving the Safety Net: An Analysis of Dropouts in an Urban Conditional Cash Transfer Program (December 2012). World Development, Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3306627

Paul Winters (Contact Author)

International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) ( email )

Via Paolo di Dono
Rome, 00142
Italy

Maria Heracleous

University of Cyprus - Department of Economics ( email )

75 Kallipoleos Street
P.O. Box 20537
1678 Nicosia
Cyprus

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