Is Inflation Domestic or Global? Evidence from Emerging Markets
27 Pages Posted: 10 Dec 2018
Date Written: November 2018
Following a period of disinflation during the 1990s and early 2000s, inflation in emerging markets has remained remarkably low and stable. Was this related to a global disinflation environment triggered by China's integration into world trade and the broader globalization inthese economies, or to better domestic policies? In this paper, we review the inflation performance in a sample of 19 large emerging markets in the past couple of decades and quantify the impact of domestic and global factors in determining inflation. We document that thelevel, volatility, and persistence of inflation declined significantly, albeit not uniformly. Our results suggest that longer-term inflation expectations, linked to domestic factors, were the main determinant of inflation. External factors played a considerably smaller role. The results are a useful piece of evidence as emerging markets craft their monetary policies to navigate the future shift in global financial conditions.
Keywords: Globalization, Inflation, Emerging markets, Inflation expectations, Central banks and their policies, Phillips Curve, Globalization: Macroeconomic Impacts
JEL Classification: E31, E58, F62
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation