The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Quantitative Exploration

Posted: 10 Oct 2018 Last revised: 2 Oct 2020

See all articles by Elena Afanasyeva

Elena Afanasyeva

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Seung Jung Lee

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Michele Modugno

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Francisco Palomino

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Date Written: October, 2018

Abstract

In this note, we explore the link between indicators of financial imbalances and macroeconomic performance, focusing on the experience of the United States. In an accompanying note, The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Narrative Investigation, we follow a narrative approach to review historical episodes of significant financial imbalances and examine whether these episodes were linked to macroeconomic overheating.

Suggested Citation

Afanasyeva, Elena and Lee, Seung Jung and Modugno, Michele and Palomino, Francisco, The Relationship between Macroeconomic Overheating and Financial Vulnerability: A Quantitative Exploration (October, 2018). FEDS Notes No. 2018-10-12-3, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3267785 or http://dx.doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2254

Elena Afanasyeva (Contact Author)

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

Seung Jung Lee

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

Michele Modugno

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

Francisco Palomino

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System ( email )

20th Street and Constitution Avenue NW
Washington, DC 20551
United States

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