Determinants of Automation Risk in the EU Labour Market: A Skills-Needs Approach

30 Pages Posted: 24 Sep 2018

See all articles by Konstantinos Pouliakas

Konstantinos Pouliakas

Cedefop; University of Aberdeen - Business School; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Abstract

This paper focuses on identifying determinants of 'automatability risk', namely the propensity of EU employees being in jobs with high risk of substitutability by machines, robots or other algorithmic processes, and uncovers its impact on labour market outcomes. Using relevant data on tasks and skill needs in jobs, collected by the European skills and jobs survey (ESJS), jobs are bundled according to their estimated risk of automation. The paper builds on the methodology of previous studies that estimate the latent relationship between 'true' automatability and job tasks (Frey and Osborne, 2013, 2017; Arntz et al., 2016; Nedelkoska and Quintini, 2018) but utilises highly disaggregated job descriptions provided by a subsample of the ESJS, as well as information on jobs' skill requirements.About 14% of EU adult workers are found to face a very high risk of automation. The distribution of high automatability across industries and occupations is also found to be skewed towards routine jobs with low demand for transversal and social skills. The risk of job displacement by machines is higher among males and lower-skilled workers, with little evidence of polarisation. It is prevalent in private sector jobs that fail to provide remedial training to employees, accentuating the vulnerability of at-risk-workers and highlighting the need for stronger lifelong learning policies at EU level.

Keywords: automation, skills, technology, digitalisation, future of work, skill needs

JEL Classification: J01, J21, J24

Suggested Citation

Pouliakas, Konstantinos, Determinants of Automation Risk in the EU Labour Market: A Skills-Needs Approach. IZA Discussion Paper No. 11829, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3253487

Konstantinos Pouliakas (Contact Author)

Cedefop ( email )

PO Box 22427
Finikas (Thessaloniki), 55102
Greece

University of Aberdeen - Business School ( email )

Edward Wright Building
Dunbar Street
Aberdeen, Scotland AB24 3QY
United Kingdom

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Downloads
110
Abstract Views
390
rank
295,405
PlumX Metrics