Methods of Substantiation of the Subject Area of the Forecast of Socio-Economic Security of the Industrial Sector

Abstract

The reliability of the results of any forecast is dependent on the validity of the selection of objects and the definition of its subject area. Suppose that in the total number of objects of the forecast it makes sense to exclude the signatures of the industrial sector (industrial objects) and non-industrial objects, which, despite the relation to the external environment, have a specific impact on the position and formation of the industrial sector. To clarify the selection of the objects and the subject of the forecast of socio-economic security of the industrial sector, the following methodological approach is proposed. The forecast objects are oriented by the location of the sources of industrial sector hazards — “internal environment — external environment” — by the scheme of interelement connections in its structure and the importance of communications outside the structure (to distinguish objects it is proposed to mark them symbolically in accordance with the “industry objects” and “non-industry objects”). The subject field of the forecast is formed by the qualitative and quantitative properties of the objects of study. The task is to identify those objects from a large number of probable objects and their data that will allow to identify negative phenomena and processes capable of implementation in the current period (updated threats).

Keywords: socio-economic security, government, society, enterprise, employee, threat, security, interests, economics, analysis, system

JEL Classification: H10, J58, P35, Z13