Real Business Cycles in the Philippines

18 Pages Posted: 9 Aug 2018

See all articles by Aris Zoleta

Aris Zoleta

De La Salle University, School of Economics

Paul Argamoso


Date Written: March 06, 2018


In this paper we want to provide stylized facts about the business cycles in the Philippines using Baxter and King and HP filter. The paper aims to add to the existing literature in characterizing Philippines business cycle, specifically we want to describe not only the characteristic of the governing cyclical component but as well the length of each cycles. The study able to describe 3 business cycles within 1977 to 2016 in Philippines macroeconomics time series. The first cycle of 1977 – 1983 is the most volatile period which in this period include the balance of payment crisis of 1985. The last cycle of 1997 – 2016 shows the least volatile period where the Philippines experience mild political uncertainties.

Keywords: secular trend, business cycles, moving averages, volatility

JEL Classification: E30, E32 , E39

Suggested Citation

Zoleta, Aris and Argamoso, Paul, Real Business Cycles in the Philippines (March 06, 2018). Available at SSRN: or

Aris Zoleta (Contact Author)

De La Salle University, School of Economics ( email )

2401 Taft Ave
Malate, Manila, 1004

Paul Argamoso


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