37 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2018
Date Written: March 12, 2018
From time immemorial, people have searched for eternal truths of the meaning of life and of why things happen. When proof of truth is elusive, either for theoretical or practical reasons, probability theory yields useful approximations to truth that have been effectively deployed in such tasks as adjudging the effectiveness of medicines, predicting the weather, and playing God.
Probability is an empirical approximation of truth, but like deduced truth, it can be nonmonotonic.
An example of the use of monotonic probability theory to draw a true conclusion from a nonmonotonic scenario is discussed.
Keywords: probability truth nonmonotonic
JEL Classification: A13, A19, A20, C10, C25, C32. C44, C52, C63, C72, C78, K10, L12, L15, M14, M51, N01, O35, Y10, Y20
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation