Optimal Timing to Trade Along a Randomized Brownian Bridge
Int. J. Financial Stud. 2018, 6(3), 75; DOI: 10.3390/ijfs6030075
25 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2018 Last revised: 19 Feb 2019
Date Written: July 27, 2018
This paper studies an optimal trading problem that incorporates the trader’s market view on the terminal asset price distribution and uninformative noise embedded in the asset price dynamics. We model the underlying asset price evolution by an exponential randomized Brownian bridge (rBb) and consider various prior distributions for the random endpoint. We solve for the optimal strategies to sell a stock, call, or put, and analyze the associated delayed liquidation premia. we solve for the optimal trading strategies numerically and compare them across different prior beliefs. Among our results, we find that disconnected continuation/exercise regions arise when the trader prescribe a two-point discrete distribution and double exponential distribution.
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