Comparing Asset Pricing Models: Distance-Based Metrics and Bayesian Interpretations
61 Pages Posted: 15 Nov 2017 Last revised: 23 Jan 2018
Date Written: December 1, 2017
In light of the power problems of statistical tests and undisciplined use of alpha-based statistics to compare models, this paper proposes a unified set of distance-based performance metrics, derived as the square root of the sum of squared alphas and squared standard errors. The Bayesian investor views model performance as the shortest distance between his dogmatic belief (model-implied distribution) and complete skepticism (data-based distribution) in the model, and favors models that produce low dispersion of alphas with high explanatory power. In this view, the momentum factor is a crucial addition to the five-factor model of Fama and French (2015), alleviating his prior concern of model mispricing by -8% to 8% per annum. The distance metrics complement the frequentist p-values with a diagnostic tool to guard against bad models.
Keywords: Distance-based Metrics; Bayesian Interpretations; Model Comparison; Power Problems; Mispricing Uncertainty; Optimal Transport Method
JEL Classification: C11; G11; G12
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation