Can Long Term Activity in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) Really Be Transformed?
University of Aberdeen, North Sea Study Occasional Paper No. 139
37 Pages Posted: 14 Sep 2017
Date Written: April 28, 2017
This study employs financial simulation modelling, including use of the Monte Carlo technique, to project oil and gas activity levels in the UK Continental Shelf to 2050 with an oil price scenario gradually rising from 2019 onwards to reach $100 per barrel in real terms in 2050. The Monte Carlo modelling was employed to project the distributions of the sizes of new discoveries and their costs. The modelling was undertaken on a full data set of undeveloped discoveries, and was conducted separately using a data set of all the undeveloped discoveries in the 5 main geographic areas of the UKCS. A key finding was that from 2017 to 2050 around 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent could be produced, with the great majority of the current undeveloped discoveries being exploited. But a key requirement for this outcome is that unit development and operating costs were constrained to current levels in real terms.
Keywords: Financial Simulation Modelling, Monte Carlo technique, Long-Term Activity in the UK Continental Shelf with Oil Price Reaching $100 in 2050 in Real Terms
JEL Classification: G18, G31, H21, Q35, Q47
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation