Benefits of EMU Participation: Estimates Using the Synthetic Control Method
CentER Discussion Paper Series No. 2017-032
66 Pages Posted: 30 Aug 2017
Date Written: August 28, 2017
This paper investigates quantitatively the benefits from participation in the Economic and Monetary Union for individual Euro area countries. Using the synthetic control method, we estimate how real GDP per capita would have developed for the EMU member states, if those countries had not joined the EMU. The estimates show that most countries have profited from having the euro, though the crisis leads to negative effects of EMU membership. The PIGS countries, in particular, would have been better off if they had not been an EMU member during the crisis, however, Greece, Portugal and Spain experienced the largest benefits of EMU participation in the pre-crisis period.
Keywords: Economic Growth, Euro Area, Synthetic Control Method, Monetary Union
JEL Classification: C23, E65, F33, F36, F43, F45
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