Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance

28 Pages Posted: 24 Jul 2017 Last revised: 27 Apr 2018

See all articles by Syud Amer Ahmed

Syud Amer Ahmed

World Bank

Enis Baris

World Bank

Delfin S. Go

Development Prospects Group, The World Bank

Hans Lofgren

World Bank

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

World Bank

Karen Thierfelder

United States Naval Academy - Department of Economics

Date Written: June 30, 2017

Abstract

This paper assesses the potential impact of antimicrobial resistance on global economic growth and poverty. The analysis uses a global computable general equilibrium model and a microsimulation framework that together capture impact channels related to health, mortality, labor productivity, health care financing, and production in the livestock and other sectors. The effects spread across countries via trade flows that may be affected by new trade restrictions. Relative to a world without antimicrobial resistance, the losses during 2015?50 may sum to $85 trillion in gross domestic product and $23 trillion in global trade (in present value). By 2050, the cost in global gross domestic product could range from 1.1 percent (low case) to 3.8 percent (high case). Antimicrobial resistance is expected to make it more difficult to eliminate extreme poverty. Under the high antimicrobial resistance scenario, by 2030, an additional 24.1 million people would be extremely poor, of whom 18.7 million live in low-income countries. In general, developing countries will be hurt the most, especially those with the lowest incomes.

Keywords: Health Care Services Industry, International Trade and Trade Rules, Inequality, Livestock and Animal Husbandry, Dairies and Dairying, Climate Change and Agriculture

Suggested Citation

Ahmed, Syud Amer and Baris, Enis and Go, Delfin S. and Lofgren, Hans and Osorio-Rodarte, Israel and Thierfelder, Karen, Assessing the Global Economic and Poverty Effects of Antimicrobial Resistance (June 30, 2017). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 8133, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3006207

Syud Amer Ahmed (Contact Author)

World Bank

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Enis Baris

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
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Delfin S. Go

Development Prospects Group, The World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Hans Lofgren

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Israel Osorio-Rodarte

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Karen Thierfelder

United States Naval Academy - Department of Economics ( email )

589 McNair Road
Annapolis, MD 21402
United States

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