Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?
47 Pages Posted: 9 Dec 2016
Date Written: August 2016
Japan has ambitious economic goals: 3 percent nominal growth; 2 percent inflation; and a primary budget surplus. Abenomics has employed the three arrows of monetary, fiscal and structural policies, but the goals remain out of reach. We propose that countercyclical measures be embedded in long-run frameworks that anchor expectations for inflation and public debt. In addition, we argue for an incomes policy to assist reflation. Model simulations suggest that, combined, these proposals would make headway towards the goals, with, on balance, a better chance of success than the more unconventional policy alternatives proposed by Krugman, Svensson, and Turner from a risk-return perspective.
Keywords: Fiscal policy, Japan, Labor markets, Wages, Incomes policy, Fiscal reforms, Unconventional monetary policy instruments, Inflation targeting, Econometric models, Japan; monetary policy; fiscal policy; incomes policy; structural reforms
JEL Classification: E31, E39, E52, E62, E64
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation