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A Cointegration Analysis of Agricultural, Energy and Bio-Fuel Spot and Futures Prices

24 Pages Posted: 3 Dec 2016

See all articles by David E. Allen

David E. Allen

School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney; Financial Research Network (FIRN); Department of Finance; School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University

Chia-Lin Chang

National Chung Hsing University - Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance

Michael McAleer

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute; Tinbergen Institute; University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Abhay Kumar Singh

Edith Cowan University

Date Written: December 2, 2016

Abstract

This paper features an analysis of the cointegration relationships among agricultural commodity, ethanol and Cushing crude oil spot and futures prices. The use of grains for the creation of bio-fuels has sparked fears that these demands are inflating food prices. We analyse approximately 10 years of daily spot and futures prices for corn, wheat, sugar ethanol and oil prices from Datastream for the period 19 July 2006 to 2 July 2015. The analysis, featuring Engle-Granger pairwise cointegration and Markov-switching VECM and Impulse Response Analysis, confirms that these markets have significant linkages which vary according to whether they are in low or high volatility regimes.

Keywords: Bio-fuels , time series, cointegration , Markov-switching , VECM, Impulse Responses, Volatility

JEL Classification: Q02, Q35, Q42, C22

Suggested Citation

Allen, David Edmund and Chang, Chia-Lin and McAleer, Michael and Singh, Abhay Kumar, A Cointegration Analysis of Agricultural, Energy and Bio-Fuel Spot and Futures Prices (December 2, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2879261 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2879261

David Edmund Allen (Contact Author)

School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Sydney ( email )

School of Mathematics and Statistics F07
University of Sydney
Sydney, New South Wales 2006
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://www.maths.usyd.edu.au

Financial Research Network (FIRN)

C/- University of Queensland Business School
St Lucia, 4071 Brisbane
Queensland
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://www.firn.org.au

Department of Finance ( email )

Taiwan
Taiwan

School of Business and Law, Edith Cowan University

100 Joondalup Drive
Joondalup, WA 6027
Australia

HOME PAGE: http://www.dallenwapty.com

Chia-Lin Chang

National Chung Hsing University - Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance ( email )

Taichung, Taiwan
China

Michael McAleer

Erasmus University Rotterdam - Erasmus School of Economics, Econometric Institute ( email )

Rotterdam
Netherlands

Tinbergen Institute

Rotterdam
Netherlands

University of Tokyo - Centre for International Research on the Japanese Economy (CIRJE), Faculty of Economics

Tokyo
Japan

Abhay Kumar Singh

Edith Cowan University ( email )

Joondalup Drive
Perth
Joondalup, WA 6027
Australia

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