Contagious Speculative Attacks

25 Pages Posted: 9 Oct 2001

See all articles by Stefan Gerlach

Stefan Gerlach

Central Bank of Ireland; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Frank Smets

European Central Bank (ECB); KU Leuven - Center for Economic Studies

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: November 1994


During the European exchange market turmoil in 1992-3 it was evident that speculative attacks tended to spread across currencies. Using a two-country version of the model developed by Flood and Garber (1984) we show how a speculative attack against one currency may accelerate the 'warranted' collapse of a second parity. More important, even if the parity of the second currency is viable in the absence of a collapse of the first one, it might be subjected to a speculative attack if the reserves available to defend the parity are 'small'.

Keywords: Exchange rate contagion, speculative attacks

JEL Classification: F31, F41

Suggested Citation

Gerlach, Stefan and Smets, Frank, Contagious Speculative Attacks (November 1994). Available at SSRN:

Stefan Gerlach (Contact Author)

Central Bank of Ireland ( email )

P.O. Box 559
Dame Street
Dublin, 2

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

United Kingdom

Frank Smets

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Kaiserstrasse 29
D-60311 Frankfurt am Main
+49 69 1344 6550 (Phone)
+49 69 1344 6575 (Fax)

KU Leuven - Center for Economic Studies ( email )

Naamsestraat 69
Leuven, B-3000

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