Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium‐Term to Long‐Term Growth in China

22 Pages Posted: 16 Sep 2016

See all articles by Justin Y. Lin

Justin Y. Lin

Peking University - China Center for Economic Research

Guanghua Wan

Asian Development Bank Institute

Peter Morgan

ADBI

Date Written: September–October 2016

Abstract

China achieved average GDP growth of nearly 10 percent over the period 1978–2015. However, how long can such high levels of growth be sustained, especially when per capita GDP levels have reached middle‐income status, and the normal tendency of economies is to slow down as they mature? This paper reviews the recent literature on the determinants and outlook for real GDP growth in China and addresses some of the key issues, including identifying supply‐side factors that can support continued strong growth under favorable conditions, as well as risk factors that might cause growth to fall short. The paper reviews supply‐side determinants of growth using a growth accounting framework, and also assesses major demand‐side factors driving potential growth, including exports, capital formation and household consumption.

Keywords: China, demand‐side factors, long‐term growth, supply‐side factors, total factor productivity

JEL Classification: D24, E2, O47, O53

Suggested Citation

Lin, Justin Yifu and Wan, Guanghua and Morgan, Peter J., Factors Affecting the Outlook for Medium‐Term to Long‐Term Growth in China (September–October 2016). China & World Economy, Vol. 24, Issue 5, pp. 20-41, 2016, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2839580 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/cwe.12173

Justin Yifu Lin (Contact Author)

Peking University - China Center for Economic Research ( email )

No. 38 Xueyuan Road
Haidian District
Beijing, Beijing 100871
China

Guanghua Wan

Asian Development Bank Institute ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Peter J. Morgan

ADBI ( email )

Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5
Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku
Tokyo, 100-6008
Japan

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