A Leading Indicators Approach to the Predictability of Currency Crises: The Case of Turkey

Hazine Dergisi, Sayi Working Paper No. 1998/12

31 Pages Posted: 13 Sep 2001

See all articles by Bengi Kibritcioglu

Bengi Kibritcioglu

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Undersecretariat of the Treasury

Bulent Kose

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Undersecretariat of the Treasury

Gamze Ugur

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Undersecretariat of the Treasury

Date Written: June 1999

Abstract

In this paper, we present a leading economic indicators approach to the predictability of currency crises in Turkey. After summarizing main theoretical models of currency crises and discussing the possible origins of financial crises in the European ERM countries (1992-93), Turkey (1994) and Southeast Asian countries (1997-98), we survey the empirical literature on the predictability of currency crises. Our leading economic indicators approach based on Burns and Mitchell (1946) shows that terms-of-trade, market-determined exchange rate over official exchange rate and some specific survey data can be considered as major leading economic indicators of currency crises in Turkey.

Keywords: Currency crises, leading economic indicators, Turkey

JEL Classification: F31, F47, G15

Suggested Citation

Kibritcioglu, Bengi and Kose, Bulent and Ugur, Gamze, A Leading Indicators Approach to the Predictability of Currency Crises: The Case of Turkey (June 1999). Hazine Dergisi, Sayi Working Paper No. 1998/12, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=283132 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.283132

Bengi Kibritcioglu (Contact Author)

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Undersecretariat of the Treasury ( email )

Inonu Bulvari No. 36, Emek
TR-06510 Ankara
Turkey
+90 312 225 5807 (Fax)

Bulent Kose

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Undersecretariat of the Treasury ( email )

Inonu Bulvari No. 36, Emek
TR-06510 Ankara
Turkey

Gamze Ugur

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Undersecretariat of the Treasury ( email )

Inonu Bulvari No. 36, Emek
TR-06510 Ankara
Turkey

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