Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom

50 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2016

See all articles by Aqib Aslam

Aqib Aslam

University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics and Politics

Samya Beidas-Strom

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Rudolfs Bems

International Monetary Fund (IMF); European Central Bank (ECB)

Oya Celasun

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Sinem Kılıç Çelik

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Zsoka Koczan

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: February 2016

Abstract

Commodity prices have declined sharply over the past three years, and output growth has slowed considerably among countries that are net exporters of commodities. A critical question for policy makers in these economies is whether commodity windfalls influence potential output. Our analysis suggests that both actual and potential output move together with commodity terms of trade, but that actual output comoves twice as strongly as potential output. The weak commodity price outlook is estimated to subtract 1 to 21/4 percentage points from actual output growth annually on average during 2015-17. The forecast drag on potential output is about one-third of that for actual output.

Keywords: Resource Boom, commodity, output, trade, price, prices, Global Commodity Crises, Resource Booms, All Countries,

JEL Classification: O13, P48, Q02, Q33

Suggested Citation

Aslam, Aqib and Beidas-Strom, Samya and Bems, Rudolfs and Celasun, Oya and Kılıç Çelik, Sinem and Koczan, Zsoka, Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom (February 2016). IMF Working Paper No. 16/27, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2754931

Aqib Aslam (Contact Author)

University of Cambridge - Faculty of Economics and Politics ( email )

Austin Robinson Building
Sidgwick Avenue
Cambridge, CB3 9DD
United Kingdom

Samya Beidas-Strom

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Rudolfs Bems

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

Oya Celasun

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Sinem Kılıç Çelik

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Zsoka Koczan

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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