An Empirical Investigation of Oil-Macro-Financial Linkages in Saudi Arabia
24 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2016
Date Written: February 2016
Oil-macro-financial linkages in Saudi Arabia are analyzed by applying panel econometric frameworks (multivariate and vector autoregression) to maceoeconomic and bank-level balance sheet data for 9 banks spanning 1999-2014. Lower growth of oil prices and non-oil private sector output leads to slower credit and deposit growth and higher nonperforming loan ratios, with feedback loops within bank balance sheets which in turn dampens economic activity. U.S. interest rates are not found to be a key determinant.
Keywords: Macro-financial linkages, nonperforming loans, panel vector autoregression, interest, oil prices, revenues, loans, Computational Techniques, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, Government Policy and Regulation,
JEL Classification: C63, E44, G21, G28
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